Candidates tournament 2026: Who has the upper hand?
With the Candidates Tournament just around the corner, the excitement is starting to build. Eight of the world’s best are set to battle it out in one of chess’s most demanding events. But who is actually in the best form right now? In this article, A Ganesan takes a closer look at how each contender has performed against elite 2700+ opposition over the past year. The numbers reveal some clear trends, surprising insights, and a few hidden dangers. And while the stats point towards a few favourites, the candidates have a way of defying expectations. Read the full article for the complete breakdown. Photo: FIDE
Candidates: Statistics & Predictions
Everyone agrees that the Candidates is an elite tournament with eight top-notch players facing each other twice. But do you know how well the candidates perform against elite players? I compiled the following table summarizing their results against 2,700+ players in 2025-2026. Going further back, I decided it is not that useful, as it is not a reliable indicator of current form, especially for fast-improving younger players.
Candidate vs 2700 (Jan 2025 – Mar 2026)
Mar26 | Jan25 | delta | win | draw | loss | total | overall | |
Nakamura | 2810 | 2802 | +8 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 16 | +3 |
Caruana | 2795 | 2803 | -8 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 49 | +4 |
Wei Yi | 2754 | 2751 | +3 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 37 | -3 |
Giri | 2753 | 2731 | 22 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 34 | +2 |
Sindarov | 2745 | 2692 | 53 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 22 | +4 |
Praggnanandhaa | 2741 | 2741 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 9 | 53 | +3 |
Bluebaum | 2698 | 2643 | 55 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 25 | +3 |
Esipenko | 2698 | 2699 | -1 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 15 | +1 |
Most of the candidates did not fluctuate much in rating over the last year. The exceptions are Giri, Sindarov and Bluebaum, who made impressive gains. You can see that Caruana and Praggnanandhaa have played by far the most games against the elite and chalked up an impressive number of wins with +4 and +3, respectively. Giri comes next with +2 out of 34 games, while Wei Yi is the sole candidate to have a negative score. Meanwhile, the others – Nakamura, Sindarov, Bluebaum and Esipenko - have played fewer games, although they still have an overall positive score. Nakamura, Sindarov, and Esipenko are the most solid, with only one loss each. We can fine tune the table to pick out the head-to-head encounters between themselves, resulting in the next crosstable.
Candidate v candidate (Jan 2025 – Mar 2026)
N | C | W | G | S | P | B | E | total | |
Nakamura | x | +2=4 | =2 | +2=6 | |||||
Caruana | -2=4 | x | +2=1 | =1 | =2-1 | +2=8-1 | |||
Wei Yi | =2 | =1-2 | x | =2 | =2 | =2 | =9-2 | ||
Giri | =1 | =2 | x | =1 | +2=1 | -1 | +2=5-1 | ||
Sindarov | =1 | x | =1-1 | +1 | +1=2-1 | ||||
Praggnanandhaa | +1=2 | =2 | =1-2 | +1=1 | x | -1 | +2=6-3 | ||
Bluebaum | +1 | -1 | +1 | x | +2-1 | ||||
Esipenko | =2 | x | =2 |
The majority have a small plus score. Giri, Praggnanandhaa and Wei Yi have faced five of the other candidates, while Caruana has played four. At the other extreme, Nakamura, Sindarov, Bluebaum and Esipenko have encountered fellow candidates rarely. In Esipenko’s case, it is limited to two draws against Wei Yi in the semifinals of the World Cup.
I predict the winner will be one of the following four in descending order of probability. For each candidate, I suggest an avatar – a former candidate who has certain similarities to the player.
#1 Fabiano Caruana (avatar Paul Keres)
The late Estonian Paul Keres started out as a sharp tactician who matured into a universal player with deep opening preparation, dynamic middlegames and subtle endgame play. You could say the same thing about Caruana. Keres played in every Candidates from 1950-1965, just like Caruana has since 2016. However, while Keres was always upstaged (and nicknamed ‘Paul the second’), Caruana has already won once and drawn the subsequent classical world championship match against Magnus Carlsen before losing the tiebreak. Understandably, Caruana is the crowd favourite this time around. He has vast experience of this event and is in great form: despite a busy playing schedule, he has either finished first or second in tournaments over the last year and maintained a near 2800 rating. Many consider him the strongest active player right now, above the reclusive Carlsen and Nakamura.
Strength: Exceptional consistency.
Weakness: May tire as the tournament progresses or be demotivated if the early rounds do not go his way.
#2 Anish Giri (avatar Peter Leko)
Peter was an incredibly talented child prodigy who started regularly competing against the world’s best at a youthful age – just like Anish. This helped influence a solid style of play and a belief that chess should objectively result in an equal position. Giri famously drew every game at the 2016 Moscow Candidates. This time around he believes he is as good as the others (see his hilarious lie detector video with Vidit on YouTube) and will be more ambitious. In the last year, he has played more aggressively and improved his rating significantly.
Strength: Deep opening preparation.
Weakness: Needs to genuinely believe his destiny and have the killer instinct.
#3 Javokhir Sindarov (avatar Teimour Radjabov)
Radjabov, like Sindarov, hails from a former Central Asian republic of the USSR. He played sharply in his youth and included the King’s Indian in his repertoire- just like Sindarov now. There were periods when Radjabov was overshadowed by the slightly older Mamedyarov, like Sindarov and Abdusattorov. In the last Candidates, few believed a debutant like Gukesh would win. Perhaps Sindarov will do the same thing? His steep rating increase over the last year indicates he will be a strong contender.
Strength: Uncompromising and fearless.
Weakness: Lack of experience at this level.
#4 Praggnanandhaa (avatar Peter Svidler)
The great Peter Svidler plays combative chess and is at home in any kind of position, the more complicated the better. And he is a great lover of cricket. Traits in common with Praggnanandhaa whom he trained for the last Candidates. The tournament went up and down for Praggnanandhaa and he finished at 50%. This time, he is older and wiser and as the tables show, has won more games against the elite in the last year than any other candidate.
Strength: Calculation and resourcefulness.
Weakness: A dip in performance in the last few months.
The remaining four I would consider outsiders. But Candidates tournaments are predictably unpredictable, and all are capable of making an impact once they start winning.
Hikaru Nakamura (avatar Samuel Reshevsky)
The American Reshevsky was a candidate multiple times, even in his fifties. Similarly, Hikaru now finds himself the oldest candidate. Reshevsky’s full-time job was as an accountant, like Hikaru claims he is a content creator rather than chessplayer. Both play in a dogged style with few mistakes and phenomenally well in time pressure. In recent years, Nakamura has reduced his participation in elite tournaments and that is why I rate his chances lower than the four above. But he will be keenly aware that this might be his last appearance and highly motivated.
Strength: Person-specific preparation and solidity.
Weakness: Risk-averse and may not win enough games.
Matthias Bluebaum (avatar Vladimir Kramnik)
Like Kramnik, Bluebaum aims to press with White and hold with Black. They have similar repertoires with 1 d4 as White and the Petrov/Queen’s Gambit as Black. Bluebaum had the largest rating increase in the last year and may benefit from others underestimating him. A good example was Giri’s rapid defeat from a sharp opening at the Grand Swiss. He has plenty of valuable online experience playing versus the top.
Strength: Ability to press with White and solid defence as Black.
Weakness: Creating winning chances as Black.
Wei Yi (avatar Gata Kamsky)
In their youth, both Kamsky and Wei Yi were prodigies considered head and shoulders above anyone else in the country. Kamsky then took an extended break for studies and work, only to eventually return as strong as ever and a title contender. Wei Yi has had a similar university break and returned to overtake Ding Liren as China’s #1. It is his first time at the Candidates, but I expect a solid performance.
Strength: Handling the initiative and attacking the king.
Weakness: Time trouble.
Andrey Esipenko (avatar Sergey Karjakin)
There was a time when the Candidates were dominated by Soviet players to the extent that their numbers had to be restricted. While the Soviet Union is no longer, Karjakin and Esipenko are products of that classical training, and exemplify the all-round excellence of its best pupils. Karjakin won the Candidates, will Esipenko be able to do so? A few years ago, his progress had stalled and his trainer Yuri Dokhoian unfortunately passed away. Lately, he has recovered and back to 2700 strength but remains a dark horse making his first appearance.
Strength: Solid and may be underestimated.
Weakness: Lack of experience.
Ultimately, statistics can guide us, but they cannot capture the full drama of the Candidates Tournament. Form, nerves, momentum and a single decisive game can change everything. While Caruana, Giri, Sindarov and Praggnanandhaa may start as favourites based on recent results, the margins are razor-thin. Over fourteen rounds, it is not just about playing the best moves, but about holding one’s nerve when it matters most.
About the author
A. Ganesan is a Malaysian of Tamil descent and a university professor of chemistry in the United Kingdom. Chess is one of his hobbies. He plays in the local chess league and has an English Chess Federation rating of around 2100. He also plays online on FIDE Arena, where he holds the International Master (IM) title.
Important links
What history says about winning the Candidates tournament?
Related News
